Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: This paper demonstrates the calculation of the moments of the distribution of aggregate life insurance claims from seriatim inforce data, assuming that each record represents an independent Bernoulli trial with its own known probability of a claim, q. Continuous distributions matching the first three or four moments are identified.

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 6A: Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: In this paper we shall present our results in terms of the estimation of human mortality rates, but the results carry over to other applications. We shall discuss a Bayesian model that encompasses both graduation [smoothing] and prediction.

Description: Demography is a very exciting subject. With a simple mathematical model, students can project a country's population forward 25, 59, 75 even 100 years. This paper will focus on six ideas from demography. They all can be useful to an actuary, yet none of them would be considered at any length if the actuary didn’t study demography.

Description: Discussion of Living to 100 Session 6A: Projection and Statistical Modeling of Mortality at Late Age

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: The purpose of this note is to show how certain formulas of life contingencies can be derived almost painlessly under the uniform distribution of deaths assumption.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.