Description: When setting reserves, multiple methods are often used in the creation of the reserve estimate. Judgment is warranted to combine these different estimates into a final recommendation. This paper describes two techniques that can be used to combine these estimates that may result in better accuracy and lower variance.

Description: Health Watch, Issue 79, December 2015, Health Watch

Description: Summary of the health section council’s research project to assess the accuracy of commonly used IBNR estimation methods over a wide range of scenarios.

Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: An approach to quantify medical intervention savings when medical claims data is not available by leveraging overlapping measurement techniques.

Description: This article discusses the advantages, logistical concerns, and pricing formulas of implementing a TNHP, in which members pay less for treatment from providers who meet higher quality and cost-effectiveness standards.

Description: Incorporating Pended Claims in Medical IBNR Estimates. Issue No. 45.

Description: Discussion of methods to estimate unpaid claim liability UCL for health plans. Includes traditional IBNR lag method and a lag method based on claims reported but not paid RBNP. Issue No. 45

Description: We highlight a new approach leveraging predictive analytics to identify high risk and rising risk opioid users for more effective screening and follow-up care.

Description: Analysis of the impact of disease progression and treatment on life expectancy provides perspective on the long term costs to the health care system of chronic medical conditions.