Description: A review of the Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization courses with special emphasis on how they may be useful to actuaries.

Description: Machine learning models are not black-boxes; these models can easily be interpreted using tools like SHAP, LIME and Anchor. These tools can facilitate the understanding of the model and the business problem. We can used these tools to build better models and communicate how predictions are generated. This article demonstrates their use in a mortality model.

Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: In this article we examine the benefits and drawbacks of using a global surrogate of a black-box model. Are surrogates a comfortable middle ground that provide insurers high predictive power as well as model explainability?

Description: The first annual SOA Predictive Analytics Symposium was held in Chicago and exceeded all expectations in attendance, presentation quality, and relevant content.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?

Description: A discussion on the starting point of building a predictive model.

Description: A summary of how the Forecasting and Futurism Section is networking with other SOA sections and with external organizations to collaborate on various projects. Also highlights new events and projects happening on the forecasting and futurism front.