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Risks Embedded in Predictive Models

Winners are here!  The Predictive Analytics and Futurism (PAF) and Technology (Tech) Sections as well as the Joint Risk Management Section (JRMS) of the Society of Actuaries (SOA), the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) is pleased to announce the winning papers for the 2018 Call for Essays, “Essay on the Risks Posed By Predictive Analytics.” Participants were asked to discuss the risks and consequences arising from the use of predictive analytics.

Gyasi Dapaa wrote the best paper, called “Ratemaking Reformed: The Future of Actuarial Indications in the Wake of Predictive Analytics.” However, the paper was not eligible to receive a prize as it didn’t meet the length requirement. 

Kim Steiner and Boyang Meng won the $1,000 cash prize for the paper “Predictiveness vs Interpretability.”

Margie Rosenberg won the $500 cash prize for the paper “Actuarially Fairness in the Era of Machine Learning.”

The three sections would like to congratulate the winners, as well as thank all the authors who participated in the contest:


Author Title Winner
Gyasi Dapaa Ratemaking Reformed: The Future of Actuarial Indications in the Wake of Predictive Analytics Best paper
Kimberly Steiner and Boyang Meng Predictiveness vs. Interpretability Best eligible paper
Margie A. Rosenberg Actuarially Fairness in the Era of Machine Learning Second best eligible paper
John Wallentine A Reality Check for Predictive Modeling  
Jim Weiss Reflections on the Day the Models Died  
Cameron Rose Risks from Futurism and Ethics in Predictive Modelling  
John Hegstrom Risks of Using Predictive Models  
Greg Fann and Kaitlyn Rachelle Fleigle Unintended Consequences: The Risks Posed By Predictive Analytics  


Read the collection of essays.