Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: Since solvency assessment depends on a financial reporting framework, one needs risk metrics for use in financial reporting. The essay argues that conceptually, the cost of capital is the appropriate metric for reserves, while a probability level is the appropriate metric for capital. Then the essay advocates stress testing on specific scenarios as a better practical approach to ORSA.

Description: Explains the method used to calculate Liquidity Cost Score and Price Impact Score. Describes the rationale for and applications of these methods.

Description: In a series papers by Willmot and Lin, both exponential and non-exponential bounds for the tail probability of various compound distributions have been derived. In Wilmot, it was suggested that non-exponential bounds for the ruin probability were difficult to obtain using martingale arguments. In this note, we show how to use martingale inequalities to obtain some upper bounds for the ruin probability.

Description: We propose asymptotically correct two-sided bounds for random sums where the number of summands has an arbitrary distribution which can be viewed as ruin probabilities or accumulated claim sizes in various risk processes. The bounds are fairly new and they reveal the real accuracy of some well-known and widely used asymptotic formulas. It turns out that this accuracy can be poor and the range where these formulas give appropriate approximations depends on the shape of the tail distribution of the summands. This dependence is examined in the research.

Description: This is a concluding and encompassing part of our research on the project entitled \Weighted Premium Calculation Principles and Risk Capital Allocations, which has been supported by the Actuarial Education and Research Fund AERF and the Society of Actuaries Committee on Knowledge Extension Research CKER. We explore the concept of weighted distributions and their role in various phenomena occurring in insurance and finance. In particular, we relate weighted distributions to actuarial and economic premium calculation principles, and also to the capital asset pricing model CAPM. Imitating the latter, we propose a weighted insurance pricing model WIPM. Although general in formulation, we show that the WIPM can successfully be evaluated in a variety of situations, which we illustrate with a number of examples.

Description: This case study is intended to educate insurance professionals on historical insurer impairments and insolvencies and possible future prevention indicators.

Description: This paper, chapter VI of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, discusses a framework for the valuation of reserves and surplus in statutory financial statements, first providing a detailed section of definitions to clarify to clarify the terms used in the paper. The “new” environment of volatile interest rates is discussed, and the mathematics underlying ruin probabilities, and combinations of risks. Procedures for different products with different types of risks are discussed. Other topics include coordination of investment policy and product policy, aggregate reserves and surplus needed, use of simplifications, financial planning, and reinsurance.

Description: Insurance companies use derivatives to manage and mitigate risks that are inherent in their investment or liability portfolios, including traditional asset/liability matching, dynamic hedging and static hedging. The authors explore how Solvency II will influence life insurers’ hedging strategies.

Description: This study is intended to educate insurance professionals on historical insurer impairments and insolvencies and possible future prevention indicators.