Description: Presentation at the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, QC. This paper considers the problem of extending regime-switching models for asset returns to the situation with multiple asset markets. The conditional tail expectation CTE is highly sensitive to the assumed dependence structure between the regime models for the different markets. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to illustrate the cost of misspecification. The authors find that the model most commonly used by practitioners is worse than all of the alternatives that they investigate.

Description: Spreadsheet of sample calculations for extreme value theory. Extreme value analysis seeks to assess, from a given ordered sample of a given random variable, the probability of events that are more extreme than any observed prior.

Description: In the first part of this series, the presenters will provide the results of a recent SOA multi-country survey on mortality improvement practices of life insurance companies. In the second part of this session, they will discuss the issues and solutions related to the development of the most recent RPEC mortality improvement assumptions.

Description: In reaction to a spate of model conversion activity and rising acceptance of model risk management techniques, many companies have, or are in the process of centralizing their modeling function to accommodate both governance and efficiency demands. These operating model changes have produced a wide range of questions and issues, such as division of labor, roles and responsibilities, selection of tasks to keep decentralized, among others. This session will frame a series of key considerations around modeling function consideration, and share lessons learned with the audience.

Description: This presentation is a concurrent session from the 1980 Annual Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held October 20-22 in Montreal. This session was arranged by the American Statistical Association, ‘ASA,’ and the five panelists are biostatisticians, the moderator being the sole actuary. It is the result of efforts by the ASA and SOA to work together and provide sessions at each other’s meetings. The panelists discuss specialized techniques developed for making greater use of noninsurance studies such as medical follow-ups and clinical trial analyses, which may, because of their nature, involve relatively small groups, and compare them with the more traditional actuarial methodology. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 6, No. 4.

Description: Presented at Annual Meeting October 1986. Discusses: Reasonableness of cost projections in the 1986 OASDI Trustees Report, Possible policy alternatives in response to the higher cost projected for years after 2020, How to reduce the variability in cost trends due to economic and demographic changes, Financing implications of differences and similarities in cost trends between Social Security pensions and private pensions, paper, 'Components of Trends in Social Security Costs' by Francisco R. Bayo, Milton P. Glanz and Charles L. Trowbridge.

Description: This session from the 1994 Valuation Actuary Symposium focuses on the modeling of assets and the problems and solutions for calculating asset market values in asset/liability models. It also covers considerations in using deterministic versus stochastic yield curve scenarios and modeling issues in developing investment strategies.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 30TS, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. The panelists discuss modeling issues for products with embedded options, such as minimum living or death benefit guarantees on variable life and annuities, and annuity death benefit enhancements. They discuss the risks posed by these features and products, selecting realistic dynamic assumptions, techniques used in modeling these features and products, stochastic analysis, and presenting results to best communicate risks clearly. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Teaching session covering the development of realistic liability models for use in asset adequacy analysis, asset/liability management, pricing/repricing, financial reporting or other corporate purposes. The primary focus is modeling issues for variable product features, such as minimum living or death benefit guarantees on both variable life and annuities, annuity death benefit enhancements, and variable immediate annuities. Topics include: • Analysis of the special risks posed by these products • Selecting realistic dynamic assumptions • Techniques used in modeling these products • Scenario testing and result presentation to best communicate risks

Description: From a session at the Spring regional meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in Atlanta, Georgia, May 24-25, 1999 Presenters offer a preview of an actual Course 7 dealing with applied modeling.