Description: Discussion of the biases understatement of risk/reserves that arise when aggregating cells in modeling Variable Annuity Minimum Guaranteed Death Benefits

Description: Part 2 of an article which presents simplified problem and and presented alternate models. Answers are presented in this article. The author's final question is: If traditional actuarial models stumble over these issues, can we get it right for real world funding pension plans and funding practices?

Description: This paper presents a statistical methodology based upon information theory, for adjusting mortality tables to obtain exactly some known individual characteristics, while obtaining a table that is as close as possible to a standard one. Followed by a discussion paper submitted

Description: Develops a statistical procedure to fit bivariate distributions of claims in presence of covariates, which allows for a more accurate study of insureds' choice and size in the frequency and severity of the two types of claims.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: Health Watch, Issue 79, December 2015, Health Watch

Description: This paper shows how actuarial pricing based on the mathematical concept of present value can be formulated and solved using Markov chains and an approach borrowed from engineering mathematics called ballistic control theory.

Description: This paper reviews recursive formulas for aggregate claim distributions. Followed by a submitted discussion paper

Description: Presenter, an actuary with an advanced degree in statistics, provides some simple tools and guidelines – without complex formulas – about the distribution of a conditional tail expectation, how to draw correct inferences from the results of stochastic testing, and the uses and pitfalls of linear regression analyses. Session 24TS of the 2005 Valuation Actuary Symposium.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.