Description: A presentation of a mathematics/statistics based approach for determining credibility factors for possible use in group health insurance premium rate setting and experience refund setting. Includes supporting mathematical proofs of approach. Followed by discussions submitted by several people

Description: This is a discussion about computer models and simulation tools for life insurance companies. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, No. 59AB

Description: Summary of the health section council’s research project to assess the accuracy of commonly used IBNR estimation methods over a wide range of scenarios.

Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: Gives examples of the difference between actual data distribution of investment returns compared with lognormal assumptions.

Description: Products that serve consumers are increasingly complex, creating a real need to help management understand risk exposure in real time. The root of the dilemma is that modeling the entire population, which is feasible with sophisticated computing technology, simply does not offer a practical response time. New modeling techniques such as replicated stratified sampling may help executives better understand risk.

Description: This paper considers the distribution of aggregate claims of an insurer. The general form of the distribution is considered initially, and, after a few mild restrictions are imposed, it is characterized as being a compound distribution. Followed by one submitted discussion paper.

Description: In this paper, the coefficients of the minimum-Rz moving-weighted-average formulas are derived using matrix algebra and the method of Lagrange multipliers. Reviewer's note: This mathematics can be useful in the graduation process of mortality and morbidity table construction

Description: Discussion of how to obtain tight upper and lower bounds on E[hX] for a given function h, and a random variable X with three known moments.

Description: This articles describes some of the industry issues that new-generation risk modeling technologies can address and the emerging technology of simultion as it applies to risk modeling.