Description: E-book contains 16 topical essays that express the opinions and thoughts of a number of authors on the subject of Investment Fallacies.

Description: Discussion of the movement toward principle-based reserves for LTC insurance.

Description: This paper introduces a new direction for evaluating numerically survival probabilities pointed out by H. Seal in his book ‘Survival Probabilities: The goal of Risk Theory’. Some of special cases can be considered as a weighted Poisson process with an infinitely divisible mixing distribution. This property is well known for the negative binomial case [gamma mixing distribution].

Description: This is the abstract of the paper Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Numerical Finance. This paper introduces and illustrates a new version of the Monte Carl method that has attractive properties for the numerical valuation of derivatives. The traditional Monte Carlo method has proven to be a powerful and flexible tool for many types of derivatives calculations.

Description: Random sum models with compound distributions are used extensively in modeling of insurance risks. Unfortunately, the compound distributions themselves are awkward to evaluate. Consequently, various numerical and analytical approximative techniques have been used. In this talk we derive various upper and lower bounds on the tails of compound distributions. Some notions in reliability theory are used.

Description: These are the abstract and reference of the paper 'Bounds on Multiple Contingent Claims'. Lo considered the problem on bounding a European option on a single asset. He obtained an upper bound on the payoff of the European call in terms of the mean and variance of the underlying asset. In this talk, we extend Lo's result to the multi-asset case. Unlike the one asset case, the correlations between the assets play an important role and have to be taken into consideration.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper 'Pricing of Credit Derivatives'. This talk will give an overview of current pricing techniques. We first show how to build a credit curve. A credit curve gives the instantaneous default probability of a party at any time in the future. It is as important to credit derivative pricing as the yield curve is to fixed income derivative pricing.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Extended periods of robust macroeconomic growth are healthy for investing.

Description: Traditional mean-variance method does not take skewness of the random rate of return into consideration. It only considers minimum variance for a given acceptable rate of return, which limited the probability of obtaining higher rate of return. If the skewness of return for the portfolio is incorporated into model of traditional approach, then the resulting non-linear programing model is not computational efficient, which certainly is complicated. On the other hand, possibilistic programming provides more efficient techniques to solve the imprecision nature of rate of return and also preserves the original linear model.

Description: Is Risk/Return a sound tool for decision-making? No. It is not consistent, not objective, distorts decision and degrades governance. Why? What shall we do then?