Description: Presented at Annual Meeting October 1986. Discusses: Reasonableness of cost projections in the 1986 OASDI Trustees Report, Possible policy alternatives in response to the higher cost projected for years after 2020, How to reduce the variability in cost trends due to economic and demographic changes, Financing implications of differences and similarities in cost trends between Social Security pensions and private pensions, paper, 'Components of Trends in Social Security Costs' by Francisco R. Bayo, Milton P. Glanz and Charles L. Trowbridge.

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Presenters discuss a method of mortality projection on various scenarios about terrorism that have been written by futurists given the events of Sept. 11. Attendees learn to use a futurism technique scenarios to address actuarial problems.

Description: Presented at June 2002 Spring Meeting. A noted expert with a degree from the graduate program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston-Clear Lake discusses long-term forecasting and planning, the future of information technology and technology transfer, strategic planning and the development of future scenarios.

Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: In this article, the author discusses earthquake modeling.

Description: Review of The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day, by prominent statistician David J. Hand.

Description: Two letters to the editor of Pension Section News. Both letters are responses to David Langer's comments which were published in the January 2006 Pension Section News regarding Social Security and its financial projections. From Pension Section News, April 2006, No. 61.

Description: A letter to the editor regarding how the Social Security trustees project Social Security costs: Is it actuarial science or politics? From Pension Section News, January 2006, No. 60.

Description: The author reviews the book, The Perfect Swarm: The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life, by Len Fisher. He provides his own interpretation of the power of the swarm and touts the book as a straightforward and informative introduction to various aspects of complexity science.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.