Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Discusses some methodological questions which arose in connection with ratemaking for the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

Description: This session is from the 1976 Washington D.C. Meeting and discusses qualitative and quantitative models for forecasting. The session is a general teaching session and not for experts.

Description: A discussion on the myths of artificial intelligence.

Description: As providers are considering accountable and value based care models, it is critical to strategically think through how to achieve a sustainable business model into the future. This requires actuarial and clinical/provider capabilities to assess the care management and financial levers to help a client through the transition.

Description: The article describes what a Delphi study entails; describes past Delphi studies conducted by the SOA; and summarizes "Land This Plane" - A Delphi Study about Long-Term Care in the United States, which was published by the SOA in April 2014.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that studies the relation between the two basic random events associated with human mortality: birth and death.

Description: Can the aggregate results from a group be used to forecast something as subjective and judgmental as one single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a set of techniques known as collaborative filtering which is discussed at length in this article.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: Futurism section members participated in this Delphi study, which had multiple choice questions on a range of life, health, economic and professional issues. The article provides background on the study and comments on the predictions of participants for 2010 (and 2050) in light of experience to date.