Description: Continuation of a tutorial on Fuzzy (vs. Boolean, or 'crisp') logic and how you can use it to create actuarial models that better fit the real world. The article provides basic theory in non-technical terms and shows applications using the R programming language.

Description: Summary of the issue, with emphasis on common sense and accuracy rather than blind precision. Also describes two F&F contests.

Description: A Delphi Research Study of Long-Term Care Financing Solutions." Two members of the Project Oversight Group discuss the reasons for the study and the Delphi method and summarize the results of the study.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: An overview of the Predictive Analytics World (PAW) conference

Description: A description of the random generalized linear model (RGLM) and how to use it.

Description: Overview of regularization and least angle regression approaches.

Description: A review of the Bridging the Gap Series: Application of Predictive Modeling in VA/FIA Risk Management at the Equity Based Guarantees Conference in Chicago.

Description: The well-known examples of predictive modeling “successes” are numerous. Perhaps less widely recognized is the myriad of ways in which a predictive model can fail to perform as expected, often due to misconceptions or misrepresentations on the part of the analyst. This article, which is intended for a general actuarial audience, focuses on three such pitfalls. By understanding these three common pitfalls, readers may guard against them within their own work, teams, and organizations.

Description: The PA Symposium will be an immersive experience benefiting entry level actuaries through senior managers, and PA newbies through advanced practitioners.