Description: In this paper the author presents an application of Bayesian forecasting methods to the estimation of reserves for outstanding claims. He assumes that the time number of periods it takes for the claims to be completely paid is fixed and known, that payments are made annually and that the development of partial payments follows a stable pay-off pattern. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2003, Vol 1.

Description: Two-dimensional data can be smoothed by minimizing a combination of the sum of weighted absolute deviations from initial estimates and the sums of absolute values of differences in the two directions. This paper discusses the techniques of parametric programming which make it feasible to explore the different results obtained by varying the emphasis given to fit versus smoothness. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: Public policy makers acknowledge that there exist significant tax incentives for the use of Registered/Qualified Pension Plans and RRSP's/lRA's. This is the abstract of a paper that first analyzes these tax advantages as to the component source, i.e., how much of the advantage can be attributed to the tax deductibility of contributions and how much is because of the non-taxation of the investment income until taken. The paper then attempts to determine and illustrate whether or not these elements of tax assistance should be viewed as tax deferral or tax waiver. The analysis shows that any tax advantages associated with the deductibility of contributions is only tax deferral. However, the paper proves that there is a permanent loss to the taxpayers associated with the non-taxation of earned investment income until taken which should be viewed as a tax subsidy or tax waiver. The paper ends with a short discussion of the public policy issues raised by these findings. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 1.

Description: Abstract for the paper which gives a unified approach to modern credibility models by using the theory of estimating functions.

Description: This is an abstract of the paper A Second Order SDE for the Force of Interest. In this paper, the author models the force of interest by a linear second order stochastic differential equation.

Description: Addresses Scheel's proposal for splitting life insurance between its savings and death benefit elements in order to reduce total variance of the risk. This paper refutes Scheel's proposition.

Description: Editor's comments which begin Volume 2 of the 1979 ARCH.

Description: This paper shows the mortality element can be partially isolated allowing an exact annuity value to be readily obtained at any interest rate. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1979, Vol.2.

Description: Group life insurance often represents an important component of the typical employee benefit package. The purpose of the present paper is to explore some aspects of different benefit schedules. In this paper, a method is suggested for analysing group life insurance benefit schedules with respect to certain criteria. The procedure is illustrated by means of simple numerical examples.