Description: This work investigates the use of a statistical approach to calculate the incurred but not reported IBNR reserve directly. This allows for the reserve to be estimated in one step, without completion factors, and it provides a confidence interval around the estimate of IBNR as well.

Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference with the main topic of analyzing the life insurance industry.

Description: The behavior of extreme paths in the usual stochastic interest rate models is not nearly so plausible as the behavior of their expected values and variances. This paper proposes a new class of models that deliver more plausible extreme paths while preserving the usual expected value and variance behavior. Along the way we derive the closed form solution for the traditional mean-reverting lognormal process, including the drift compensation.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that presents an iterative procedure for computing the lower approximation of the Snell envelope - a value process of the American option. The method produces an increasing sequence of approximations of the Snell envelope from below, which coincide with the Snell envelope in discrete time after finite steps. Advantages of this method compared with other well-known traditional approaches are discussed first. Then, elaborate algorithm details associated with theoretical proofs are discussed. An example of constructing the lower approximation is available with numerical results, which are demonstrated in figures. Some characteristics of the implementation in the computational environment and an improvement are mentioned at the end.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that considers a general risk model in which both the claim and income gain arrivals follow Poisson processes.

Description: Presented at August 2011 Actuarial Research Conference. Summarizes the Heston model, discusses hedging equity indexed annuities, and provides numerical results of the Black-Scholes and Heston hedging strategies.

Description: This abstract describes a paper in which several issues surrounding the 2011 paper “Copula Regression”, Variance volume 5-issue1, by Rahul A. Parsa and Stuart A. Klugman, are discussed.

Description: This paper gives an overview of fuzzy optimization, presents applications of fuzzy optimization and investigates ways to extend the methodology to risk assessment.

Description: Discussion of Capital Market Modeling techniques

Description: The method in this paper is to derive expressions for mortality between integral values of age underlying the typical approximations employed, and to compare such expressions. Annuity and life reserve formulas are compared. Discussions of the paper are included.