Description: We devise an approach, using tobit models for modeling annuity lapse rates. The approach is based on data provided by the Society of Actuaries’ Risk Management Task Force. Kim [2005a] models annuity lapse rates using a logit model and the same US data (he also used Korean data separately). We find that the tobit model is a more than suitable approach for all levels of the explanatory variables including interest rates, unemployment rates, and GDP growth rates. Specifically, policyholder behavior in the tail of the distribution of lapse rates is explained as well as it is in the normal range of lapse rates.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to help practitioners and regulators more accurately quantify the potential impact of market risk on insurance products with equity-linked guarantees. To this end, this paper examines time series model selection and assessment based on residuals, with a focus on regime switching models. Also it discusses the difficulties in defining residuals for such processes and propose several possible alternatives. We determine that a stochastic approach to defining the residuals is the only way to generate residuals that are normally distributed under the model hypothesis.

Description: Part 1 proposes solutions to the first of three flaws of the current financial model to obtaining the fair value of the public sector employer’s pension benefit liability.

Description: A discussion of reverse mortgages, and their suitability for meeting the long term care needs of seniors who want to stay in their homes.

Description: This article discusses the market potential for preneed insurance.

Description: This article discusses the various ways that banks distribute insurance products.

Description: This article provides a contemporary perspective of direct-to-consumer, defines what it is, and offers several considerations for D2C strategies.

Description: Dialogue between Peter Winslow, a tax attorney, and Edward Robbins and Christian DesRochers, tax actuaries, on selected tax issues related to proposals to change statutory reserving from a formula-based methodology to a principles-based approach.

Description: Tidbits relate to contingent deferred annuities, wellness benefits in qualified long-term care contracts, and reactivating the active financing exception for insurance companies.

Description: The article discusses modeling of variable annuity behavior risk, with a particular focus on how interaction between different behavioral assumptions complicates modeling. The article gives a brief overview of variable annuity behavior risk, discusses the challenges that behavioral interactions pose for VA modeling, and discusses three potential solutions for dealing with this complexity.